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专家称4月底前或再次降准

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年07月23日 23:46:10
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(  中)(国)(国)(际)(经)(济)(交)(流)(中)(心)(经)(济)(研)(究)(部)(部)(长)(徐)(洪)(才)(19日)(在)(中)(国)(国)(际)(经)(济)(交)(流)(中)(心)(第)(82期)(“经)(济)(每)(月)(谈)(”上)(表)(示)(,为)(了)(满)(足)(实)(体)(经)(济)(平)(稳)(发)(展)(的)(客)(观)(要)(求)(,降)(准)(势)(在)(必)(行)(,今)(年)(4月)(底)(之)(前)(很)(有)(可)(能)(再)(次)(降)(准)(。
  4月)(15日)(,国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(公)(布)(了)(中)(国)(一)(季)(度)(主)(要)(经)(济)(统)(计)(数)(据)(。初)(步)(核)(算)(,2016年)(一)(季)(度)(国)(内)(生)(产)(总)(值)(158526亿)(元)(,按)(可)(比)(价)(格)(计)(算)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(6.7%。
  “一)(季)(度)(经)(济)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,当)(前)(经)(济)(增)(长)(在)(合)(理)(区)(间)(内)(平)(稳)(运)(行)(、开)(局)(良)(好)(,而)(且)(出)(现)(了)(结)(构)(优)(化)(、提)(质)(增)(效)(的)(良)(好)(态)(势)(。”徐)(洪)(才)(表)(示)(。
  未)(来)(,在)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(政)(策)(方)(面)(,徐)(洪)(才)(认)(为)(,稳)(中)(求)(进)(总)(基)(调)(不)(会)(改)(变)(,财)(政)(政)(策)(将)(更)(加)(积)(极)(。今)(年)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(要)(进)(一)(步)(扩)(大)(,扩)(大)(到)(3%左)(右)(,特)(别)(是)(结)(构)(性)(减)(税)(从)(5月)(份)(开)(始)(要)(进)(一)(步)(扩)(大)(,今)(年)(要)(减)(5000亿)(元)(左)(右)(的)(税)(,让)(企)(业)(轻)(装)(上)(阵)(,这)(也)(属)(于)(供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(。
  “未)(来)(货)(币)(政)(策)(将)(保)(持)(中)(性)(偏)(松)(的)(态)(势)(。”徐)(洪)(才)(表)(示)(,今)(年)(M2增)(速)(目)(标)(设)(在)(13%左)(右)(,由)(于)(我)(们)(当)(前)(基)(本)(上)(是)(负)(利)(率)(,而)(且)(进)(一)(步)(降)(息)(可)(能)(会)(引)(发)(鼓)(励)(资)(金)(外)(流)(,因)(此)(,今)(年)(基)(本)(上)(没)(有)(降)(息)(的)(空)(间)(,但)(是)(降)(准)(势)(在)(必)(行)(。
  徐)(洪)(才)(表)(示)(,今)(年)(3月)(份)(下)(调)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(法)(定)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(率)(,释)(放)(了)(7000亿)(元)(的)(基)(础)(货)(币)(,按)(照)(货)(币)(乘)(数)(为)(4.3倍)(-4.4倍)(来)(计)(算)(,我)(们)(有)(3万)(亿)(元)(广)(义)(货)(币)(需)(要)(通)(过)(降)(准)(来)(释)(放)(,下)(调)(在)(5-6次)(较)(为)(合)(适)(,才)(能)(保)(证)(货)(币)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(的)(合)(理)(充)(裕)(。“预)(计)(在)(5月)(1日)(之)(前)(,4月)(底)(之)(前)(很)(可)(能)(要)(降)(准)(,这)(也)(是)(实)(体)(经)(济)(平)(稳)(发)(展)(的)(客)(观)(要)(求)(。”
  “今)(年)(未)(来)(几)(个)(月)(经)(济)(的)(运)(行)(仍)(然)(可)(以)(期)(待)(,短)(期)(来)(看)(,经)(济)(出)(现)(了)(一)(个)(回)(稳)(迹)(象)(,预)(计)(二)(季)(度)(和)(三)(季)(度)(都)(会)(保)(持)(在)(6.8%,四)(季)(度)(或)(在)(6.7%,总)(体)(来)(看)(,今)(年)(经)(济)(增)(长)(评)(价)(水)(平)(在)(6.7%左)(右)(。“徐)(洪)(才)(认)(为)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(进)(入)(新)(常)(态)(以)(来)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(动)(力)(、新)(旧)(动)(力)(转)(换)(,整)(体)(动)(力)(趋)(于)(减)(弱)(趋)(缓)(。未)(来)(五)(年)(,6.5%-7.0%的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(是)(可)(以)(期)(待)(的)(。”徐)(洪)(才)(表)(示)(。
  “可)(以)(说)(世)(界)(经)(济)(进)(入)(低)(速)(增)(长)(的)(新)(常)(态)(。”中)(国)(国)(际)(经)(济)(交)(流)(中)(心)(总)(经)(济)(师)(陈)(文)(玲)(认)(为)(,在)(这)(样)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,中)(国)(仍)(然)(是)(拉)(动)(世)(界)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(主)(要)(力)(量)(。中)(国)(GDP占)(到)(全)(球)(的)(14%,国)(际)(贸)(易)(占)(到)(全)(球)(的)(13.2%,中)(国)(制)(造)(业)(占)(到)(全)(球)(的)(25%,每)(年)(的)(增)(量)(仍)(然)(在)(8000亿)(元)(左)(右)(,相)(当)(于)(印)(度)(尼)(西)(亚)(、土)(耳)(其)(等)(国)(家)(的)(总)(量)(。中)(国)(现)(在)(实)(施)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”战)(略)(,和)(更)(多)(的)(国)(家)(共)(同)(建)(设)(命)(运)(共)(同)(体)(、利)(益)(共)(同)(体)(、责)(任)(共)(同)(体)(,更)(多)(国)(家)(将)(得)(到)(新)(的)(投)(资)(机)(会)(、发)(展)(的)(机)(会)(。此)(外)(,中)(国)(的)(产)(业)(结)(构)(发)(生)(了)(非)(常)(大)(的)(变)(化)(。第)(三)(产)(业)(已)(经)(达)(到)(了)(50.5%,服)(务)(业)(超)(过)(了)(制)(造)(业)(。在)(“三)(驾)(马)(车)(”中)(,消)(费)(占)(到)(了)(69.4%,成)(为)(拉)(动)(中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(第)(一)(动)(力)(。
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