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2019年,如果我是价投,你还会爱我吗?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年12月14日 13:39:11
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(具)(有)(代)(表)(性)(的)(恒)(瑞)(医)(药)(、贵)(州)(茅)(台)(、海)(天)(味)(业)(、海)(康)(威)(视)(以)(及)(老)(板)(电)(器)(,其)(市)(盈)(率)(在)(2018年)(年)(初)(的)(时)(候)(达)(到)(了)(近)(几)(年)(最)(高)(值)(,其)(余)(大)(部)(分)(白)(马)(股)(的)(情)(况)(也)(差)(不)(多)(。但)(就)(是)(在)(这)(样)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,大)(部)(分)(投)(资)(者)(仍)(是)(对)(于)(白)(马)(股)(股)(价)(的)(上)(行)(保)(持)(乐)(观)(。
这)(个)(时)(候)(我)(们)(就)(要)(来)(思)(考)(思)(考)(戴)(维)(斯)(效)(应)(了)(。
当)(上)(市)(公)(司)(的)(归)(属)(净)(利)(润)(为)(正)(的)(时)(候)(,关)(于)(估)(值)(有)(一)(个)(恒)(等)(式)(:
市)(值)(=归)(属)(净)(利)(润)(×市)(盈)(率)((PE)。
由)(此)(我)(们)(知)(道)(,我)(们)(在)(持)(有)(股)(票)(获)(取)(的)(收)(益)(来)(自)(于)(两)(个)(部)(分)(:归)(属)(净)(利)(润)(的)(增)(长)(以)(及)(市)(盈)(率)(的)(溢)(价)(:
1、戴)(维)(斯)(双)(击)(:当)(公)(司)(净)(利)(润)(持)(续)(增)(长)(时)(,市)(场)(给)(予)(的)(估)(值)(也)(会)(提)(高)(,也)(就)(是)(市)(盈)(率)(随)(之)(增)(加)(,由)(此)(公)(司)(市)(值)(得)(到)(了)(相)(乘)(倍)(数)(的)(上)(涨)(。
2、戴)(维)(斯)(双)(杀)(:当)(公)(司)(业)(绩)(下)(滑)(时)(,净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(下)(降)(或)(者)(减)(少)(,市)(场)(给)(予)(的)(估)(值)(也)(会)(下)(降)(,市)(值)(就)(会)(得)(到)(相)(乘)(倍)(数)(的)(下)(跌)(。
我)(们)(看)(回)(上)(面)(所)(提)(到)(的)(五)(只)(股)(票)(,从)(2016年)(年)(初)(-2017年)(年)(底)(,市)(盈)(率)(均)(有)(大)(幅)(度)(上)(涨)(,也)(就)(是)(PE大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,但)(是)(我)(们)(应)(当)(明)(白)(,PE上)(涨)(的)(根)(本)(原)(因)(是)(企)(业)(净)(利)(润)(的)(持)(续)(增)(长)(,若)(是)(净)(利)(润)(情)(况)(开)(始)(变)(差)(,戴)(维)(斯)(双)(击)(就)(会)(转)(为)(戴)(维)(斯)(双)(杀)(。
2018年)(年)(初)(,白)(马)(股)(的)(市)(盈)(率)(普)(遍)(到)(了)(历)(史)(高)(位)(,那)(这)(些)(白)(马)(股)(未)(来)(的)(业)(绩)(是)(否)(能)(够)(支)(撑)(如)(此)(高)(的)(市)(盈)(率)(?
比)(如)(说)(恒)(瑞)(医)(药)(,2016、2017年)(的)(净)(利)(润)(同)(比)(增)(速)(分)(别)(为)(19.22%、24.25%,再)(看)(远)(点)(,近)(十)(年)(来)(除)(了)(个)(别)(年)(份)(,恒)(瑞)(的)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(大)(多)(在)(22%左)(右)(,但)(是)(在)(业)(绩)(增)(速)(比)(较)(稳)(定)(的)(前)(提)(下)(,恒)(瑞)(医)(药)(的)(市)(盈)(率)(却)(在)(两)(年)(间)(上)(涨)(了)(2倍)(,最)(高)(时)(超)(过)(70倍)(。
假)(如)(我)(们)(在)(70倍)(市)(盈)(率)(,同)(时)(乐)(观)(假)(设)(恒)(瑞)(医)(药)(2018、2019年)(的)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(为)(25%,我)(们)(还)(能)(从)(PE的)(溢)(价)(上)(赚)(取)(相)(乘)(倍)(数)(的)(收)(益)(吗)(?
明)(显)(很)(难)(。市)(场)(先)(生)(终)(归)(会)(让)(企)(业)(市)(值)(回)(归)(到)(一)(个)(合)(理)(的)(估)(值)(水)(平)(,当)(市)(场)(回)(归)(理)(性)(,没)(有)(足)(够)(的)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(来)(支)(撑)(高)(估)(值)(的)(时)(候)(,就)(该)(想)(想)(估)(值)(下)(跌)(的)(风)(险)(了)(。
贵)(州)(茅)(台)(,2017年)(业)(绩)(的)(上)(涨)(是)(因)(为)(销)(量)(的)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,因)(为)(当)(年)(并)(没)(有)(提)(价)(。2018年)(提)(价)(了)(约)(18%,若)(想)(维)(持)(2017年)(62%的)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(,还)(得)(让)(销)(量)(增)(长)(37%左)(右)(。研)(究)(过)(茅)(台)(的)(人)(都)(说)(制)(约)(茅)(台)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(的)(因)(素)(是)(产)(量)(,我)(们)(不)(考)(虑)(其)(他)(因)(素)(的)(话)(,就)(会)(明)(白)(茅)(台)(在)(2018年)(难)(以)(达)(到)(37%的)(销)(量)(增)(长)(,如)(果)(再)(结)(合)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(来)(考)(虑)(只)(会)(更)(难)(。
而)(海)(天)(味)(业)(,PE在)(23%的)(平)(稳)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(下)(从)(30倍)(左)(右)(上)(涨)(到)(60多)(倍)(,PE涨)(得)(有)(点)(过)(分)(,所)(以)(股)(价)(从)(2017年)(年)(初)(的)(30元)(涨)(到)(了)(2018年)(最)(高)(点)(84元)(,PE带)(来)(的)(倍)(数)(效)(应)(非)(常)(明)(显)(。
我)(们)(反)(过)(来)(看)(顺)(鑫)(农)(业)(,业)(绩)(反)(转)(,净)(利)(润)(同)(比)(大)(幅)(增)(长)(,PE随)(之)(上)(涨)(,成)(为)(了)(2018年)(A股)(中)(表)(现)(非)(常)(不)(错)(的)(一)(只)(牛)(股)(。
风)(险)(是)(涨)(出)(来)(的)(,现)(在)(回)(过)(头)(来)(看)(,2018年)(A股)(中)(的)(白)(马)(股)(,并)(非)(不)(存)(在)(价)(值)(投)(资)(,而)(是)(2017年)(被)(市)(场)(过)(于)(追)(捧)(,当)(市)(场)(反)(应)(过)(来)(,公)(司)(业)(绩)(并)(不)(足)(以)(支)(撑)(高)(估)(值)(的)(时)(候)(,杀)(估)(值)(就)(不)(意)(外)(,而)(老)(板)(电)(器)(和)(海)(康)(威)(视)(则)(是)(典)(型)(的)(戴)(维)(斯)(双)(杀)(。
戴)(维)(斯)(效)(应)(给)(了)(我)(们)(投)(资)(者)(一)(个)(非)(常)(正)(确)(的)(投)(资)(思)(路)(,如)(果)(能)(从)(利)(润)(增)(长)(和)(估)(值)(增)(长)(获)(取)(相)(乘)(倍)(数)(的)(收)(益)(是)(再)(好)(不)(过)(的)(事)(情)(,但)(是)(当)(估)(值)(足)(够)(高)(的)(时)(候)(,就)(要)(考)(虑)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(能)(够)(带)(来)(市)(值)(增)(长)(的)(部)(分)(是)(否)(会)(被)(市)(盈)(率)(下)(降)(而)(抵)(消)(,甚)(至)(是)(业)(绩)(放)(缓)(带)(来)(的)(戴)(维)(斯)(双)(杀)(风)(险)(。
3
估)(值)(是)(价)(投)(的)(安)(全)(边)(际)(
作)(为)(一)(名)(金)(融)(从)(业)(人)(员)(,团)(队)(在)(2017年)(年)(报)(出)(来)(之)(后)(对)(很)(多)(上)(市)(公)(司)(做)(过)(估)(值)(,我)(在)(这)(里)(列)(举)(一)(些)(我)(们)(当)(时)(认)(为)(的)(合)(理)(估)(值)(范)(围)(:
贵)(州)(茅)(台)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(6060亿)(-7580亿)(;
海)(康)(威)(视)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(2070亿)(-2590亿)(;
海)(天)(味)(业)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(850亿)(-1020亿)(;
恒)(瑞)(医)(药)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(1080亿)(-1260亿)(;
汤)(臣)(倍)(健)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(170亿)(-210亿)(;
欧)(普)(康)(视)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(83亿)(-97亿)(;
老)(板)(电)(器)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(220亿)(-270亿)(;
浙)(江)(美)(大)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(80-96亿)(;
宋)(城)(演)(艺)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(200亿)(-240亿)(;
贵)(州)(茅)(台)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(6060亿)(-7580亿)(;
海)(康)(威)(视)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(2070亿)(-2590亿)(;
海)(天)(味)(业)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(850亿)(-1020亿)(;
恒)(瑞)(医)(药)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(1080亿)(-1260亿)(;
汤)(臣)(倍)(健)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(170亿)(-210亿)(;
欧)(普)(康)(视)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(83亿)(-97亿)(;
老)(板)(电)(器)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(220亿)(-270亿)(;
浙)(江)(美)(大)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(80-96亿)(;
宋)(城)(演)(艺)(,合)(理)(估)(值)(为)(200亿)(-240亿)(;
还)(有)(些)(公)(司)(的)(估)(值)(就)(不)(一)(一)(列)(举)(了)(,相)(对)(来)(说)(,我)(们)(的)(估)(值)(比)(较)(保)(守)(,特)(别)(是)(对)(于)(医)(药)(股)(以)(及)(涨)(上)(天)(的)(海)(天)(味)(业)(,按)(照)(这)(个)(思)(路)(操)(作)(我)(们)(的)(亏)(损)(应)(该)(会)(很)(小)(。
实)(际)(上)(,我)(们)(确)(实)(用)(估)(值)(为)(投)(资)(构)(建)(了)(安)(全)(边)(际)(,但)(是)(对)(某)(些)(行)(业)(的)(认)(识)(仍)(是)(不)(够)(深)(刻)(,特)(别)(是)(老)(板)(电)(器)(和)(浙)(江)(美)(大)(所)(依)(仗)(的)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(。
2017年)(以)(来)(,政)(府)(对)(于)(房)(地)(产)(的)(调)(控)(逐)(渐)(加)(码)(,我)(们)(当)(时)(对)(于)(老)(板)(电)(器)(2018年)(的)(业)(绩)(预)(测)(已)(经)(偏)(向)(谨)(慎)(,预)(估)(是)(13%的)(业)(绩)(增)(速)(,但)(是)(大)(家)(也)(都)(看)(到)(了)(,前)(三)(季)(度)(的)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(为)(5.3%,所)(以)(杀)(估)(值)(就)(不)(可)(避)(免)(。
而)(浙)(江)(美)(大)(也)(差)(不)(多)(如)(此)(,尽)(管)(我)(们)(已)(经)(考)(虑)(到)(房)(地)(产)(的)(降)(温)(,但)(仍)(是)(不)(够)(深)(入)(理)(解)(,给)(予)(的)(估)(值)(偏)(高)(给)(公)(司)(带)(来)(一)(定)(的)(损)(失)(。
当)(然)(,我)(们)(依)(然)(感)(谢)(自)(己)(利)(用)(估)(值)(给)(自)(身)(构)(建)(的)(安)(全)(边)(际)(,因)(为)(我)(们)(始)(终)(明)(白)(,股)(票)(不)(是)(跌)(了)(40%或)(者)(50%就)(安)(全)(了)(,估)(值)(的)(决)(定)(因)(素)(是)(利)(润)(,往)(后)(亦)(是)(如)(此)(。
4
2019年)(展)(望)(
凛)(冬)(将)(至)(,这)(是)(我)(想)(说)(的)(话)(。
既)(然)(我)(们)(在)(2018年)(年)(初)(的)(时)(候)(还)(没)(有)(意)(识)(到)(Winteriscoming,现)(在)(意)(识)(到)(也)(不)(迟)(。
2019,我)(们)(不)(知)(道)(对)(外)(持)(续)(开)(放)(或)(是)(毛)(衣)(战)(,各)(自)(对)(经)(济)(的)(实)(际)(影)(响)(到)(底)(会)(到)(什)(么)(程)(度)(。
2019,我)(们)(不)(知)(道)(房)(地)(产)(是)(否)(还)(是)(会)(持)(续)(严)(控)(,相)(关)(产)(业)(链)(企)(业)(的)(业)(绩)(难)(以)(估)(量)(,这)(架)(马)(车)(还)(能)(不)(能)(跑)(?
2019,“带)(量)(采)(购)(”会)(持)(续)(几)(年)(的)(去)(伤)(害)(国)(内)(药)(企)(业)(绩)(的)(增)(速)(,医)(药)(企)(业)(持)(续)(杀)(估)(值)(,我)(认)(为)(是)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(。
2019,GDP也)(许)(还)(能)(有)(6%以)(上)(的)(增)(速)(,但)(是)(我)(们)(应)(意)(识)(到)(,实)(业)(将)(会)(很)(难)(很)(难)(,从)(周)(围)(朋)(友)(反)(应)(的)(情)(况)(以)(及)(上)(市)(公)(司)(报)(表)(来)(看)(,实)(体)(经)(济)(从)(2018年)(第)(三)(季)(度)(已)(经)(开)(始)(变)(差)(。
抛)(开)(短)(期)(炒)(作)(,企)(业)(市)(值)(增)(长)(的)(根)(本)(原)(因)(是)(净)(利)(润)(的)(增)(长)(。在)(《冰)(与)(火)(之)(歌)(》这)(部)(美)(剧)(中)(,有)(句)(话)(叫)(做)(“凡)(人)(皆)(有)(一)(死)(”。不)(同)(的)(个)(人)(、企)(业)(以)(及)(政)(府)(职)(能)(机)(构)(这)(些)(微)(观)(经)(济)(组)(成)(了)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(,宏)(观)(不)(好)(的)(时)(候)(独)(立)(个)(体)(都)(不)(好)(过)(。
但)(这)(不)(代)(表)(完)(全)(没)(有)(投)(资)(机)(会)(,特)(高)(压)(以)(及)(5G领)(域)(或)(许)(有)(一)(定)(的)(投)(资)(机)(会)(。
2018年)(9月)(7日)(能)(源)(局)(规)(划)(了)(9项)(输)(变)(电)(工)(程)(,总)(计)(14条)(线)(路)(,主)(要)(投)(资)(在)(5条)(特)(高)(压)(直)(流)(长)(线)(路)(以)(及)(2条)(特)(高)(压)(交)(流)(长)(线)(路)(上)(,这)(或)(许)(能)(给)(相)(关)(企)(业)(带)(来)(一)(定)(的)(业)(绩)(弹)(性)(。
而)(5G,可)(能)(是)(未)(来)(几)(年)(投)(资)(的)(主)(线)(之)(一)(。不)(过)(凡)(事)(都)(有)(个)(发)(展)(的)(过)(程)(,首)(先)(得)(把)(基)(站)(建)(好)(了)(才)(会)(带)(来)(应)(用)(市)(场)(的)(爆)(发)(。预)(计)(工)(信)(部)(在)(2019年)(下)(半)(年)(或)(者)(2020年)(年)(初)(会)(给)(三)(大)(运)(营)(商)(下)(发)(5G牌)(照)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(十)(分)(重)(要)(的)(时)(间)(节)(点)(。
根)(据)(3G和)(4G的)(经)(验)(,基)(站)(的)(大)(规)(模)(建)(设)(会)(给)(相)(关)(零)(部)(件)(公)(司)(带)(来)(较)(大)(的)(业)(绩)(弹)(性)(。由)(于)(5G基)(站)(将)(会)(密)(集)(组)(网)(以)(及)(采)(用)(阵)(列)(天)(线)(,而)(业)(内)(人)(士)(表)(示)(天)(线)(的)(价)(格)(也)(会)(有)(一)(定)(程)(度)(的)(上)(涨)(,所)(以)(在)(基)(站)(建)(设)(这)(一)(环)(节)(,天)(线)(企)(业)(的)(业)(绩)(弹)(性)(或)(许)(是)(最)(大)(的)(,A股)(和)(港)(股)(相)(关)(企)(业)(都)(可)(以)(研)(究)(研)(究)(。
5
结)(语)(
A股)(不)(存)(在)(价)(投)(吗)(?说)(不)(存)(在)(的)(那)(是)(瞎)(扯)(淡)(,价)(投)(不)(是)(让)(我)(们)(在)(任)(何)(时)(候)(无)(条)(件)(买)(入)(绩)(优)(股)(,而)(是)(在)(合)(理)(的)(估)(值)(下)(进)(场)(。
2018年)(已)(经)(过)(去)(,做)(好)(基)(础)(研)(究)(仍)(是)(2019年)(最)(重)(要)(的)(事)(情)(,认)(清)(楚)(了)(现)(实)(后)(更)(要)(砥)(砺)(前)(行)(。
和)(A股)(确)(认)(过)(眼)(神)(,价)(投)(是)(对)(的)(人)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
)


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